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How Much Money Will You Really Spend in Retirement? Probably a Lot More Than You Think

When we retire, every day becomes just like the weekend. And on the weekend, we have all kinds of time and opportunities to spend money. Many of us vastly underestimate the percentage of income we’ll need. Here’s how to make sure you get that number right.

I was asked recently by a former student-CFP® candidate to recommend a software program for a friend who wanted to create a plan on her own. I get this question every-so-often. While there are a few pretty slick sites that produce easy to create financial profiles, my experience is that it is often user-error that causes them to create a plan that looks promising but falls apart on quick review. One of the biggest reasons in understatement of spending. The following article by Dan Ariely and Aline Holzwarth, begins to describe this gap. Other assumptions not covered in this article are also missed, like assumed performance, treatment of assets and taxes, and the introduction of risk during the plan. If you want a great plan, my recommendation is to choose a great planner who can integrate technology with planning experience. Ask for a sample of her/his work. Ask her/him to explain how the plan was assembled. Ask if she/he holds a CFP® designation. These few questions alone will help you learn which advisors view planning as a foundation for your financial life, and other advisors say they are planners but prefer to only manage your investments. I hope this article helps.

It’s the question that plagues pretty much everybody as they look ahead: How much money will I need in retirement?

Most likely, a lot more than you think.

Let us explain. The typical approach most people take is to ask what percentage of their final salary they think they will need in retirement. If you have ever visited a financial adviser, you must have been asked this sort of question. You most likely dedicated a whole minute (at most) to formulating your answer.

And no one would blame you for it. Answering a question as complex as this requires knowledge far beyond most people’s grasp—and far beyond the grasp of even many professionals.

Just imagine for a second the sorts of inputs you might use to get to the right number, such as the cost of living where you want to retire, the cost of health care (and how much of it you will utilize), the state of Social Security, the rate of inflation, the risk level of your investment portfolio, and especially how you want to spend your time in retirement. Do you want to take walks in the park or join a gym? Drink water at dinner or expensive wine? Watch TV or attend the ballet weekly? Visit family once a year or twice a year or four times a year? Do you want to eat out once or twice or five times a week? And so on.

Try it yourself. Stop for a minute and think to yourself what your percentage might be. Clearly, it’s a daunting task to transform all these hard-to-predict inputs into a single percentage.

To understand better how people grapple with this question, we invited hundreds of people—of different age groups, income levels, and professions—to our research lab and asked them how much of their salary they thought they would need in retirement.

The answer most people gave was about 70%. Did you also choose a percentage around 70%-80%? You’re not alone. In fact, we, too, thought that 70% sounded reasonable. But reasonable isn’t the same as right. So we asked the research participants how they arrived at this number. And we discovered that it wasn’t because they had truly analyzed it. It was because they recalled hearing it at some point—and they simply regurgitated it on demand.

The 70%, in other words, is the conventional wisdom. And it’s wrong.

Sticker shock

To find out what people actually will need in retirement—as opposed to what they think they will need—we took another group of participants, and asked them specific questions about how they wanted to spend their time in retirement. And then, based on this information, we attached reasonable numbers to their preferences and computed what percentage of their salary they would actually need to support the kind of lifestyle they imagined.

The results were startling: The percentage we came up with was 130%—meaning they’d have to save nearly double the amount they originally thought.

How could this be? Just think about it. Working is actually a very cheap activity. When you’re working (never mind the fact that you are actually making money), you aren’t spending much. There’s no time to spend money at work. And when we do spend money, it is often paid for by our employers. At least some companies pay for our coffee, our travel, team-building activities, happy-hour drinks and so on. It is one of the cheapest ways to spend our time.

When we retire, it is as if someone took 10 waking hours of our workday and gave us free time to do as we please. Every day becomes just like the weekend. And on the weekend, we have all kinds of time and opportunities to spend money. We shop, travel, buy tickets for events and eat out.

Sure, we may have the time in retirement to do certain things ourselves that we would pay for while working (like mow the lawn, clean the house or make our own lunch). But for the most part, it is much easier to spend money when we’re not spending most of our waking hours at work.

Self-assessment

Now that we know how misguided the 70% figure is, here’s the hard question: How can each of us figure out more precisely the kind of life we’ll want—and what it will cost?

In a study conducted in collaboration with MoneyComb, a fintech company that participated in our Startup Lab academic incubator program at our Center for Advanced Hindsight at Duke University, we found out that a good way to think about spending in general is to think about the following seven spending categories: eating out, digital services, recharge, travel, entertainment and shopping, and basic needs.

To help you think about your time in retirement, imagine that every day was the weekend. How much would you like to spend in each of these categories? How often would you eat out? Which digital subscriptions would you want to have? How would you pamper yourself? How often, where and how luxuriously would you want to travel?

Clearly, those who prefer spending time at the beach and watching Netflix won’t spend nearly as much as those who prefer the opera and good wine three times a week. Those who want to spend vacations visiting family won’t spend nearly as much as those who want to take a few cruises a year. Believe it or not, what might seem like minor preferential differences like these can quickly add $20,000 a year to your spending requirements. This is precisely why it’s so important to factor in these preferences when determining how much you need for retirement.

Details, Details

Failing to account for all of your expected costs in retirement, no matter how small, can be costly. Here are some specifics—many of which people often forget—to factor in when making projections.

1 Water, gas, electricity, heating/cooling, garbage collection    2 Rent, mortgage, insurance, maintenance    3 Primary-care doctor, specialists, hospital bills, medications, insurance    4 News sources, Netflix, Hulu, etc.    5 Loan/lease, maintenance, insurance, gas, car wash, parking

Source: Dan Ariely and Aline Holzwarth

Try this exercise yourself: Close your eyes and picture a single representative year in retirement. Live it in the best way you can imagine. (And remember that “best” doesn’t necessarily mean “more expensive.”) The more expensive you imagine your future, the larger the sacrifice you will have to make today.

Now, answer each of the following questions from the list of categories.

We know that just thinking about retirement, not to mention doing the math, can be overwhelming. So pour yourself a glass of wine and make this a rewarding process for yourself. Just take note of how much you spent on the bottle for future reference.

  • Eating out and in:Do you like to cook, or do you prefer going out to eat? How often do you want to go out to dinner in retirement? How much do you spend on each meal, on average? How often do you see yourself splurging on dessert, or a fancy bottle of wine?
  • Digital services:What are the digital services you pay for now? Do you have a subscription to The Wall Street Journal? (You won’t want to give that up.) Do you have cable? How about videogames? Apps and software? Online courses? What are all the digital services you want to have in retirement, and how much do they cost? Would you like to spend more or less on digital services in retirement?
  • Recharge (recreational and personal services):Do you like to pamper yourself? What sort of pampering do you imagine in retirement: reading a book at the beach, treating yourself to the occasional $15 manicure, or going all in with luxurious spa treatments? How often do you want to get a massage? Are you a member of a country club, or would you like to be?
  • Travel:Do you like to travel? How often? How much do you spend on everyday transportation? What do you spend on flights in a year? Do you imagine traveling more or less in retirement than you do now? What sort of traveling suits you? Do you like to go on cruises? Are you the type to go on a cross-country road trip in your 60s, or would you prefer the comfort of first class on a plane? Or perhaps you want to have your own private jet that takes you to your own private island. (We can all dream.)
  • Entertainment:How will you spend your time in retirement? What sorts of events will you want to attend? How much do you want to spend on the opera, concerts, musicals, ballet, sports events, museums, classes and so on? Will you buy books or borrow them from the library?
  • Shopping:Are you a shopper? Do you like to give your friends and family gifts? What about donations to charity? How much shopping do you see yourself doing in retirement? How much do you imagine spending on clothing, electronics, home goods and other shopping?
  • Basic needs (utilities, housing, health care):Finally, we arrive at the least exciting but most necessary category—our essential spending. How much do you think you will spend on utilities, housing, health care and other basic needs? (This is of course a very complex number to estimate, and this is where getting input from professionals can be very useful.)

 

Doing the math

Now that you have a guide for determining roughly how much you’d like to spend in each category, you’re ready to add everything up. Here is an Excel spreadsheet that you can download and play with. It is prepopulated with example numbers, but you should change things around to fit your own personal preferences. To get your percentage, you’ll need to add your salary in the spreadsheet. (And if you’d like, go to our survey to let us know what percentage you got and share any feedback.)

If you want to take the next step in this process and translate your annual amount to the total amount you will need over the course of your full retirement (to know the total amount you need to accumulate from until then, for example), simply multiply the annual amount by the number of years you expect to be in retirement. For most of us, that should be about 20 years.

As we live longer, funding retirement is a moving target. And to have any hope of successfully securing our future lifestyles, we have to start early and we have to build a more detailed and accurate picture of the way we hope to live. We have to understand not just how much we will earn in our life and how far we are from retirement (in years and in dollars), but also how we want to spend our time both during our working years and after.

Once we have determined how much we truly need to save for retirement, we can then focus on how to get to this amount. We can adjust our current lifestyle accordingly, figuring out which trade-offs we are willing and unwilling to make. We should also work backward to determine how much risk we need to take in our investment portfolios in order to reach these goals. And finally, for most of us the retirement we desire may be out of reach, so we need to start being extra nice to our children.

Mr. Ariely is the James B. Duke Professor of Psychology and Behavioral Economics at Duke University. He is the founder of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. Mrs. Holzwarth is the head of behavioral science at Pattern Health, and principal of the Center for Advanced Hindsight at Duke University.

Appeared in the September 4, 2018, print edition as ‘How Much You’ll Really Spend in Retirement.’

This article was prepared by a third party for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. It contains references to individuals or entitles that are not affiliated with Cornerstone Wealth Management, Inc. or LPL Financial.

 

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Financial Planning Optimism

It’s back to school for students all across the country, and whether it’s the first week in kindergarten, high school, or college, parents and students alike are excited yet probably nervous at the same time. What will the new school year bring—and can it live up to our hopeful expectations? This is likely how many investors may feel about the markets right now, with reasons for excitement and some causes for concern. Overall, when it comes to market fundamentals, the positives may outweigh the negatives—and hopefully the same will be the case for the 2018–19 school year.

Strength in several economic and market indicators is driving optimism among consumers and businesses. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index has soared to a 14-year high, while the job market also continues to show robust growth. As we await the figures for August, the economy has produced an average of 215,000 new jobs during the first seven months of the year. These positive economic indicators cement expectations of an additional interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September meeting; given the Fed’s gradual and transparent rate hike campaign, however, investors in U.S. markets have thus far taken these increases in stride.

Along with a steady economy, corporate America continues to deliver solid performances, as second quarter earnings season delivered very strong profit growth. Meanwhile, generally upbeat forward-looking guidance, along with high business and consumer confidence, helps support the outlook for earnings over the balance of the year and into 2019. With this backdrop, the now longest bull market in history may have further to go.

Although stocks have been performing well, there are some areas of concern. September is historically the weakest month of the year for stocks. There are also some trouble spots in emerging markets, including Turkey and Argentina, which have led to year-to-date losses in emerging market investment strategies. Policy risk remains in the background with the ongoing trade tensions and the upcoming midterm elections. These factors may lead to a pickup in near-term market volatility, but stocks still have the potential to push higher from current levels over the rest of the year.

The longest bull market, and one of the longest economic expansions, means investors may worry that the good times will soon come to an end. But it appears that both the bull market and expansion have room to run. The U.S. economy is enjoying solid momentum, bolstered by the new tax law; business spending is picking up; the manufacturing sector is healthy; and the latest earnings season was one of the strongest on record. So although there are areas to keep a close eye on, and the potential for some ups and downs in the market, we can retain a positive outlook for the final months of 2018. Let’s hope that students, teachers, and parents can also put their worries aside and enjoy their return to another school year.

As always, if you have any questions, I encourage you to contact me.

Sincerely,

Important Information

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC. Tracking #1-768037

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Financial Considerations When Buying a Car

Things to think about before heading to a dealership.

Time to buy a car? Short of buying a house, this is one on the most important purchases you will make. It’s also one that you might be making several times through your life, comprising of thousands – sometimes tens of thousands – of dollars.

If you think about it, you can probably imagine other things that you might want to prioritize, ranging from saving for retirement, buying a home, or even some lifestyle purchases, like travel. Not to mention that having more money on hand will likely be handy if you have sudden need of an emergency fund. Thankfully, there are many options for saving money by avoiding spending too much on your next car. Here are some things to think about.

Buying a new car? It may not be the best value; a brand-new car loses roughly 20% of value over the first year and about 10% of that happens the moment you drive it off the lot. Buying used might require more research and test driving, but under the right circumstances, it can be a considerably better value.1

A trade-in might not always favor you. A dealership has to make a profit on the vehicle you are trading in, so you will often receive far less than the Blue Book value. A better value may be to try to sell your vehicle, yourself, directly to another person. If you do attempt a trade-in, avoid any major expenditures on the old car beforehand, like major repairs or even a detailing. Focus on getting the best price for the new car and leave the trade-in for the end of your negotiation.2

Leasing vs. buying. Leasing a car may only be advantageous if you are a business owner and able to leverage the payments as a tax deduction. While you can get a brand-new car every few years, there are many hoops to jump through; you need excellent credit, and there are many potential fees and penalties to consider when leasing, which you don’t face when buying. In many ways, it’s akin to renting a car for a longer period of time, with all of the disadvantages and responsibilities.3

Shop around for interest rates, but consider credit unions. Credit unions tend to have more favorable rates as they are member owned. At the average American bank, the interest rates are 4.5%, according to Bankrate.com. Meanwhile, you can often get rates in the neighborhood of 2.97% through the typical credit union. There are a number of other benefits to credit unions, including being based locally as well as user-friendly practices, such as options to apply to a credit union at the dealership. There are many financing options, though, so make credit unions only part of your research.4

An automobile is a big-ticket purchase. It’s worth taking your time and making sure that you’ve covered your bases in terms of making the most responsible purchase.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.

1 – marketwatch.com/story/8-things-youre-better-off-buying-used-2018-08-02 [8/2/18]

When a Lost Wallet Comes Back Empty

A behavioral economist answers questions on why people steal while returning lost property, the cost of news making rescues, and the value of do-it-yourself labor.

I recently lost my wallet while shopping at the mall. Once I got it back, I realized that the person who returned it had stolen all the money and returned only my driver’s license and credit card. Here’s what I don’t get: How could a person doing such a kind act also do something so immoral? —Jessie

The basic principle operating here is what psychologists call “moral licensing.” Sometimes when we do a good deed, we feel an immediate boost to our self-image. Sadly, that also makes us less concerned with the moral implications of our next actions. After all, if we are such good, moral people, don’t we deserve to act a bit selfishly?

Moral licensing operates across many areas of life. After we recycle our trash from lunch, we’re more likely to buy non-green products. After we go to the gym, we’re more likely to order a double cheeseburger. This is probably why the person who found your wallet and decided to return it felt justified in taking your cash.

Dear Dan,

A thought occurred to me during recent coverage of the rescue of the Thai soccer team trapped in a cave. It seemed that no expense was spared in bringing out the 12 boys and their coach alive. But there are plenty of ways that, for a fraction of the cost, we as a society could save and improve the lives of far more people—for example, by spending more on public health measures.

I’m not criticizing the rescue of the soccer players. But what makes us care so much about these episodes and so little about other issues? —Stanley

You are correct in your observation. We’re much more motivated to take drastic measures to help others when we see suffering on a specific human face, rather than in abstract numbers. This is what’s known as the “identifiable victim effect.”

Consider, for example, the recent stories about immigrant children separated from their parents at the border. Most of us were aware of immigration problems before, but when the harm became more individual and visible, it seemed intolerable. We should be aware of this effect and, as you say, shouldn’t necessarily let it dictate where we focus our effort and resources.

Hi, Dan.

I recently decided to remodel my bathroom myself instead of hiring a contractor to do it. It took up my weekends for nine months, time that I otherwise would have spent in advancing my career. I enjoy the hands-on work, but would I have been better off focusing on my job and trying to earn more money? —Will

While it’s certainly more time-efficient to hire a contractor, and you could have used the time to further your career, it sounds like you got a lot of satisfaction out of remodeling the bathroom yourself. Several colleagues and I conducted research a few years ago on what we called the “IKEA effect.” It turns out that when we assemble something ourselves, we end up taking a lot of pride in it, and for a long time. So I wouldn’t just think about money and time. Think also about the pleasure of taking pride in your craftsmanship.

 

 

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Leaving a Legacy to Your Grandkids

Now is the time to explore the possibilities.

Grandparents Day provides a reminder of the bond between grandparents and grandchildren and the importance of family legacies.

A family legacy can have multiple aspects. It can include much more than heirlooms and appreciated assets. It may also include guidance, even instructions, about what to do with the gifts that are given. It should reflect the values of the giver.

What are your legacy assets? Financially speaking, a legacy asset is something that will outlast you, something capable of producing income or wealth for your descendants. A legacy asset might be a company you have built. It might be a trust that you create. It might be a form of intellectual property or a portfolio of real property. A legacy asset should never be sold – not so long as it generates revenue that could benefit your heirs.

To help these financial legacy assets endure, you need an appropriate legal structure. It could be a trust structure; it could be an LLC or corporate structure. You want a structure that allows for reasonable management of the legacy assets in the future – not just five years from now, but 50 or 75 years from now.1

Think far ahead for a moment. Imagine that forty years from now, you have 12 heirs to the company you founded, the valuable intellectual property you created, or the real estate holdings you amassed. Would you want all 12 of your heirs to manage these assets together?

Probably not. Some of those heirs may not be old enough to handle such responsibility. Others may be reluctant or ill-prepared to take on the role. At some point, your grandkids may decide that only one of them should oversee your legacy assets. They may even ask a trust officer or an investment professional to take on that responsibility. This can be a good thing because sometimes the beneficiaries of legacy assets are not necessarily the best candidates to manage them.

Values are also crucial legacy assets. Early on, you can communicate the importance of honesty, humility, responsibility, compassion, and self-discipline to your grandkids. These virtues can help young adults do the right things in life and guide their financial decisions. Your estate plan can articulate and reinforce these values, and perhaps, link your grandchildren’s inheritance to the expression of these qualities.

You may also make gifts with a grandchild’s education or retirement in mind. For example, you could fully fund a Roth IRA for a grandchild who has earned income or help an adult grandchild fund their Roth 401(k) or Roth IRA with a small outright gift. Custodial accounts represent another option: a grandparent (or parent) can control assets in a 529 plan or UTMA account until the grandchild reaches legal age.3

Make sure to address the basics. Is your will up to date with regard to your grandchildren? How about the beneficiary designations on your IRA or your life insurance policy? Creating a trust may be a smart move. In fact, you can set up a living irrevocable trust fund for your grandkids, which can actually begin distributing assets to them while you are alive. While you no longer own assets you place into an irrevocable trust (which is overseen by a trustee), you may be shielded from estate, gift, and even income taxes related to those assets with appropriate planning.4

This Grandparents Day, think about the legacy you are planning to leave. Your thoughtful actions and guidance could help your grandchildren enter adulthood with good values and a promising financial start.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.

1 – forbes.com/sites/danielscott1/2017/09/04/three-common-goals-every-legacy-plan-should-have/ [9/4/17]
2 – wealthmanagement.com/high-net-worth/key-considerations-preparing-family-legacy-plan [3/27/17]
3 – marketwatch.com/story/whats-next-after-planning-your-retirement-help-your-children-and-grandchildren-plan-for-theirs-2017-10-17 [10/17/17]
4 – investopedia.com/articles/pf/12/set-up-a-trust-fund.asp [1/23/18]

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The Sequence of Returns

A look at how variable rates of return do (and do not) impact investors over time. 

What exactly is the “sequence of returns”? The phrase simply describes the yearly variation in an investment portfolio’s rate of return. Across 20 or 30 years of saving and investing for the future, what kind of impact do these deviations from the average return have on a portfolio’s final value?

The answer: no impact at all.

Once an investor retires, however, these ups and downs can have a major effect on portfolio value – and retirement income.

During the accumulation phase, the sequence of returns is ultimately inconsequential. Yearly returns may vary greatly or minimally; in the end, the variance from the mean hardly matters. (Think of “the end” as the moment the investor retires: the time when the emphasis on accumulating assets gives way to the need to withdraw assets.)

An analysis from BlackRock bears this out. The asset manager compares three model investing scenarios: three investors start portfolios with lump sums of $1 million, and each of the three portfolios averages a 7% annual return across 25 years. In two of these scenarios, annual returns vary from -7% to +22%. In the third scenario, the return is simply 7% every year. In all three scenarios, each investor accumulates $5,434,372 after 25 years – because the average annual return is 7% in each case.1

Here is another way to look at it. The average annual return of your portfolio is dynamic; it changes, year-to-year. You have no idea what the average annual return of your portfolio will be when “it is all said and done,” just like a baseball player has no idea what his lifetime batting average will be four seasons into a 13-year playing career. As you save and invest, the sequence of annual portfolio returns influences your average yearly return, but the deviations from the mean will not impact the portfolio’s final value. It will be what it will be.1

When you shift from asset accumulation to asset distribution, the story changes. You must try to protect your invested assets against sequence of returns risk.

This is the risk of your retirement coinciding with a bear market (or something close). Even if your portfolio performs well across the duration of your retirement, a bad year or two at the beginning could heighten concerns about outliving your money.

For a classic illustration of the damage done by sequence of returns risk, consider the awful 2007-2009 bear market. Picture a couple at the start of 2008 with a $1 million portfolio, held 60% in equities and 40% in fixed-income investments. They arrange to retire at the end of the year. This will prove a costly decision.

The bond market (in shorthand, the S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) gains 5.7% in 2008, but the stock market (in shorthand, the S&P 500) dives 37.0%. As a result, their $1 million portfolio declines to $800,800 in just one year. Its composition also changes: by December 31, 2008, it is 53% fixed income, 47% equities.2

Now comes the real pinch. The couple wants to go by the “4% rule” (that is, the old maxim of withdrawing 4% of portfolio assets during the first year of retirement). Abiding by that rule, they can only withdraw $32,032 for 2009, as compared to the $40,000 they might have withdrawn a year earlier. This is 20% less income than they expected – a serious blow.2

Two other BlackRock model scenarios shed further light on sequence of returns risk, involving two hypothetical investors. Each investor retires with $1 million in portfolio assets at age 65, each makes annual withdrawals of $60,000, and each portfolio averages a 7% annual return over the next 25 years. In the first scenario, the annual portfolio returns for the first eight years of retirement are +22%, +15%, +12%, -4%, -7%, +22%, +15%, +12%. In the second, the returns from year 66-73 are -7%, -4%, +12%, +15%, +22%, -7%, -4%, +12%. (For simplicity’s sake, both investors see this 5-year cycle repeat through age 90: three big advances of either +12%, +15%, or +22%, then two yearly losses of either -4% or -7%.)1

At the end of 25 years, the investor in the first scenario – the one characterized by big gains out of the gate – has $1,099,831 at age 90, even with yearly $60,000 drawdowns gradually adjusted 3% for inflation. In that scenario, the portfolio losses are fortunately postponed – they come three years into retirement, and six of the first eight years of retirement see solid gains. In the second scenario, the investor sees four bad years out of eight from age 66-73 and starts out with single-digit portfolio losses at age 66 and 67. After 25 years, this investor has … nothing. At age 88, he or she runs out of money – or at least all the assets in this portfolio. That early poor performance appears to take a significant toll.1

Can you strategize to try and avoid the fate of the second investor? If you sense a market downturn coming on the eve of your retirement, you might be wise to shift portfolio assets away from equities and into income-generating investments with little or no correlation to the weather on Wall Street. If executed well, such a shift might even provide you with greater retirement income than you anticipate.2

If you are about to retire, do not dismiss this risk. If you are far from retirement, keep saving and investing knowing that the sequence of returns will have its greatest implications as you make your retirement transition.

Examples are hypothetical and are not representative of any specific situations. Your results will vary. The hypothetical rates of return used do not reflect the deduction of fees and charges inherent to investing.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.

1 – blackrock.com/pt/literature/investor-education/sequence-of-returns-one-pager-va-us.pdf [6/18]
2 – kiplinger.com/article/retirement/T047-C032-S014-is-your-retirement-income-in-peril-of-this-risk.html [7/3/18]

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Financial Fraudsters Preying on Boomers & Elders

If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

If you are in or near retirement, it is a safe bet that you would like more yield from your investments rather than less. That truth sometimes leads liars, scammers, and fraudsters to pitch any number of too-good-to-be-true “investment opportunities” to retirees. Given all that and the classic money scams perpetrated on elders, you have good reason to be financially skeptical as you get older.

Beware of unbelievable returns. Sometimes you hear radio commercials or see online ads that refer to “an investment” or “an investment opportunity” that is supposedly can’t miss. Its return beats the ones achieved by the best Wall Street money managers, only the richest Americans who know the “secrets” of wealth know about it, and so forth.

Claims like these are red flags, the stuff of late-night infomercials. Still, there are retirees who take the bait. Sometimes the return doesn’t match expectations (big surprise); sometimes their money vanishes in a Ponzi scheme or pyramid scheme of sorts. Any monthly or quarterly statements – if they are sent to the investor at all – should be taken with many grains of salt. If they seem to be manually prepared rather than sent from a custodian firm, that’s a hint of danger right there.

Beware of equity investments with “guaranteed” returns. On Wall Street, nothing is guaranteed.

Beware of unlicensed financial “professionals.” Yes, there are people operating as securities professionals and tax professionals without a valid license. If you or your friends or relatives have doubts about whether an individual is licensed or in good standing, you can go to finra.org, the website of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (formerly the National Association of Securities Dealers) and use their BrokerCheck feature.1

Beware of the “pump and dump.” This is the one where someone sends you an email – maybe it goes straight to your spam folder, maybe not – telling you about this hot new microcap company about to burst. The shares are a penny each right now, but they will be worth a thousand times more in the next 30 days. The offer may be entirely fraudulent; it may even promise a guaranteed return. Chances are, you will simply say goodbye to whatever money you “invest” if you pursue it. Brokers pushing these stocks may not even be licensed.2

Watch out for elder scams. In addition to phony financial services professionals and exaggerated investment opportunities, we have fraudsters specifically trying to trick septuagenarians, octogenarians, and even folks aged 90 and above. They succeed too often. To varying degrees, all these ploys aim to exploit declining faculties or dementia. That makes them even uglier.

You still see stories about elders succumbing to the “grandparent scam,” a modern-day riff on the old “Spanish prisoner” tale. Someone claiming to be a grandson or granddaughter calls and says that they are in desperate financial straits – stranded without a car or return ticket in some remote or hazardous location, in jail, in an emergency room without health insurance, could you wire or transfer me some money, etc.  A disguised voice and a touch of personal information gleaned from everyday Internet searches still make this one work.3

Would you believe some crooks prey on the grieving? Elders can be targeted by funeral scams, in which a criminal reads new obituaries, and then calls up widowers claiming that the deceased spouse or partner had an outstanding debt with them. Occasionally, the crook even attends the funeral and presents the bogus claim to the bereaved in person. Identity thieves may present themselves as official representatives of Medicare – they are calling from Washington D.C. or the local Medicare office, they have detected an error, and they need a senior’s personal information to make things right. In reality, they aim to do wrong.4

Everyone wants to look younger, and unsurprisingly, new scams have surfaced pitching bogus anti-aging products. One Arizona-based scam pushing fake Botox brought in $1.5 million in just over a year before its masterminds were arrested. Expect to see more of this, with the cosmetics or medicines offered either amounting to snake oil or resulting in physical harm.4

A little healthy skepticism can’t hurt. If you are recently retired or approaching retirement age, be aware of these scams and schemes – and inform your elderly parents about them, too.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.

1 – finra.org/investors/about-brokercheck [7/9/18]
2 – money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/articles/2018-03-08/penny-stocks-5-ways-to-spot-a-pump-and-dump-scam [3/8/18]
3 – tickertape.tdameritrade.com/retirement/elderly-financial-scams-16236 [12/25/17]
4 – ncoa.org/economic-security/money-management/scams-security/top-10-scams-targeting-seniors/ [7/9/18]

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Financial Steps to Take Before a Divorce

Wise moves to make before things are finalized.

Before your divorce goes through, it will be wise to check up on financial matters. It will be better to assess the state of your financial life before the split rather than after.

Find out where you stand financially. Beyond your salary and your bank accounts, how much do you have in the way of retirement savings? What will your monthly income be? What investments do you hold? Will you retain ownership of any real estate, and assume the mortgage payments yourself? Will you be selling any assets or ownership interests?

You should document everything about your personal finances. Everything you can think of. Whether you scan it or copy it, you should have as complete a picture of your financial life as possible.

The picture of your financial life should also detail your credit & insurance. Do you know your credit score? Today, a good credit score is considered anything north of 690. If you have a score in the mid-600s, you have fair credit. Below 630, you have poor credit.1

Track your credit before & after your divorce. There are three major credit reporting agencies that assign you credit ratings: Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian. Through Credit.com, you can see two of these three credit scores for free, updated each month. You may also request a copy of your credit report every 12 months from the three reporting agencies; you are entitled to it, by law. Ask all three for such a report, if you haven’t already. If your ex-spouse attempts to add some unauthorized debt in your name, this is one way to know about it.1

Do you have your own health insurance? If so, how much do you pay for it per month? If not, you may have a challenge to secure it – hopefully, your health or employment situation allows you to get coverage without many obstacles. Apart from health coverage, other types of insurance have no doubt protected other people and important items in your household. Who owns these policies? The beneficiary designations on the policies will undoubtedly need to change.

What should you do about taxes? If you are divorcing after April, should you and your spouse file one more joint return? This calls for a chat with your tax professional. Filing jointly could of course save you money compared to filing singly, but it also means you are jointly responsible for everything on that 1040 form.

If you remain legally married and living with each other when a calendar year ends, the two of you must file your federal tax return for that year as a married couple – your filing status will either be married filing jointly or married filing separately. If you think you will receive a refund, you and your former spouse will have to communicate to see how it will be divided – the IRS does not allocate refunds to divorced spouses by any kind of formula.2

If you will have primary custody of your children, the IRS expects that you will claim the exemption for dependent children on your 1040 form. If you have multiple children, it is allowable for you and your former spouse to divide the per-child exemptions as you see fit. If you paid some or all of the medical expenses for one of your children, you can deduct those expenses even if your ex-spouse has primary custody of that child.2

Most importantly, assess what your financial potential will be after the divorce. An “equal” settlement is not always an equitable one, as one spouse may be left with much greater potential to build and retain wealth than the other. That is the most important long-term issue to address, and it should be addressed well before a divorce is finalized.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.

1 – ajc.com/feed/business/personal-finance/the-important-financial-lesson-you-wont-learn-in/fCRRNr/ [8/21/16]
2 – irs.com/articles/filing-your-taxes-after-divorce [9/15/16]

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Role of tending to family members typically falls to women

65 percent of older adults rely on family and friends for long-term care needs”

As parents reach their golden years, many need their adult children’s help for daily living or for simple tasks like rides to doctor’s appointments and going to the grocery store or more intense care such as dressing, bathing and administering medication.

According to the Family Caregiver Alliance, 65 percent of older adults rely on family and friends for long-term care needs with 30 percent supplementing family care with paid providers. These informal providers give nearly $500 billion in valued services. A majority of the time — an estimated 66 percent — the caretaking tasks fall to women who give at least 20 hours of unpaid care on average while also balancing their own families and working outside the home.

When folks are giving so much of themselves to others, caregivers often suffer burnout from physical, mental and emotional exhaustion, including anxiety, stress and depression. “You have to make sure that you are not overextending yourself,” said Tammy Bresnahan, AARP’s associate state director for advocacy. “… That is why we recommend that you find breathing exercises and/or yoga or try to carve out a little bit of time for yourself so you are not all consumed.”

She suggests siblings may want to split up duties if possible, such as one takes the parent to doctor’s appointments while the other does home visits.

Elizabeth Weglein, CEO of the Elizabeth Cooney Care Network, believes it is important for caregivers to take time for themselves.

“If you are able to take care of yourself, you can take better care of someone else,” she said. “Most caregivers put themselves at the bottom row and take care of themselves last. Their health deteriorates fairly quickly. So really the mantra should be always take care of yourself.”

The advice is similar to the scenario you hear before an airplane flight from attendants who instruct caregivers, in the case of an emergency, to put on their oxygen masks first before helping their loved ones.

“Caregivers don’t always realize it when they are in the midst of it,” Weglein said. “They need to be taking care of themselves, getting time off. Even just going to the grocery store alone or going to get their hair done or seeing a friend and having lunch. Just having some downtime to talk. The value of that break is so high.”

One of the biggest needs for caregivers is respite care. Some caregivers need to attend out-of-town funerals or important events. Others need to have surgery or be in a medical facility for a short time.

Maryland is one of 16 states that utilizes a federal grant to provide emergency respite care services within 72 hours, allotting families $225 a year for services. Beginning in fall 2017, the Elizabeth Cooney Care Network serves as administrator.

“The individuals who have utilized (the grant) were very thankful,” Weglein said. “They really did not have any resources to turn if it had not been for the grant. …The good part is it doesn’t have a lot of strings. There is no economic requirement. They just have to have a need. It is supporting respite care which means it is helping the primary caregiver.”

Weglein believes the grant is unique because it can be triggered so quickly and families may call themselves.

“In Maryland, there are a lot of gatekeepers where you have to call this entity, get prequalified and then call,” Weglein said. “This particular grant was really designed to be very free and accessible that a family caregiver could just call Elizabeth Cooney 24 hours a day, trigger the grant and then services would be rendered within a 72-hour period for the total of $225. We’ve been very creative with that $225 to create support systems that really maximize the need for that individual.”

The Maryland Healthy Families Working Act, which took effect in February, also helps caregivers. The bill, vetoed by Gov. Larry Hogan but overridden by the Maryland General Assembly, requires employers with 15 or more employees to provide paid sick/safe leave for up to five days. Before the act, some fields, such as retail and food service, had no paid sick/safe leave.

“There is some fear from some businesses that it is going to hurt the business,” Weglein said. “… My perspective on how we treat our employees and also how we treat our clients (is) you support your team. The stronger and happier and healthier your team is, the stronger your company is.”

Weglein notes the better we understand taking care of our own families, especially with the aging population, the better we will be as a society in the state.

“Overall, financially, if we keep and take care of our citizens, it is really a matter of keeping our economic base strong so people don’t move to Delaware,” Weglein said. “They don’t move to Florida or North Carolina. They don’t look and seek other pathways to get care.”

This Article was prepared by a third party for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

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Ways to Repair Your Credit Score

Steps to get your credit rating back toward 720.     

We all know the value of a good credit score. We all try to maintain one. Sometimes, though, life throws us a financial curve and that score declines. What steps can we take to repair it?

Reduce your credit utilization ratio (CUR). CUR is credit industry jargon, an arcane way of referring to how much of a credit card’s debt limit a borrower has used up. Simply stated, if you have a credit card with a limit of $1,500 and you have $1,300 borrowed on it right now, the CUR for that card is 13:2, you have used up 87% of the available credit. Carrying lower balances on your credit cards tilts the CUR in your favor and promotes a better credit score.1

Review your credit reports for errors. You probably know that you are entitled to receive one free credit report per year from each of the three major U.S. credit reporting agencies – Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion. You might as well request a report from all three at once. You can do this at annualcreditreport.com (the only official website for requesting these reports). About 25% of credit reports contain mistakes. Upon review, some borrowers spot credit card fraud committed against them; some notice botched account details or identity errors. Mistakes are best noted via a letter sent certified mail with a request for a return receipt (send the agency the report, the evidence, and a letter briefly explaining the error).2

Behavior makes a difference. Credit card issuers, lenders, and credit agencies believe that payment history paints a reliable picture of future borrower behavior. Whether or not you pay off your balance in full, whether or not you routinely max out your account each month, the age of your account – these are also factors affecting that portrait. If you unfailingly pay your bills on time for a year, that is a plus for your credit score. Inconsistent payments and rejected purchases count as negatives.3

Think about getting another credit card or two. Your CUR is calculated across all your credit card accounts, in respect to your total monthly borrowing limit. So, if you have a $1,200 balance on a card with a $1,500 monthly limit and you open two more credit card accounts with $1,500 monthly limits, you will markedly lower your CUR in the process. There are potential downsides to this move – your credit card accounts will have lower average longevity, and the issuer of the new card will of course look at your credit history.1

Think twice about closing out credit cards you rarely use. When you realize that your CUR takes all the credit cards you have into account, you see why this may end up being a bad move. If you have $5,500 in consumer debt among five credit cards that all have the same debt limit, and you close out three of them accounting for $1,300 of that revolving debt, you now have $4,200 among three credit cards. In terms of CUR, you are now using a third of your available credit card balance whereas you once used a fifth.1

Beyond that, 15% of your credit score is based on the length of your credit history – how long your accounts have been open, and the pattern of use and payments per account. This represents another downside to closing out older, little used credit cards.4

If your credit history is spotty or short, you should know about the FICO XD score. A few years ago, the Fair Isaac Co. (FICO) introduced new scoring criteria for borrowers that may be creditworthy, but lack sufficient credit history to build a traditional credit score. The FICO XD score tracks cell phone payments, cable TV payments, property records, and other types of data to set a credit score, and if your XD score is 620 or better, you may be able to qualify for credit cards. Credit bureau TransUnion created CreditVision Link, a similar scoring model, in 2015.5

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.

1 – investopedia.com/terms/c/credit-utilization-rate.asp [6/28/18]
2 – creditcards.usnews.com/articles/everything-you-need-to-know-about-finding-and-fixing-credit-report-errors [9/15/17]
3 – creditcards.com/credit-card-news/behavior-scores-impact-credit.php [11/9/17]
4 – creditcards.com/credit-card-news/help/5-parts-components-fico-credit-score-6000.php [11/9/17]
5 – nytimes.com/2017/02/24/your-money/26money-adviser-credit-scores.html [2/24/17]