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Midyear Outlook 2019

We are pleased to announce the release of the LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets, with investment insights and market guidance through the end of 2019.

LPL Research believes that even as investors face prospects for periodic bouts of volatility, emphasizing fundamentals will remain critical for making effective investment decisions. The LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2019 provides updated views of current fundamentals that should persist as shorter-term concerns fade and emphasizes four primary pillars for fundamental investing – policy, the economy, fixed income, and equities. As headlines change, look to these pillars and the LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2019 to help provide perspective on what really matters.

Progress on trade remains a key theme to watch. Economic (and political) self-interest most likely will bring the United States and China back to the table, although risks have increased. Clarity on cross-border transactions should lead to increased business confidence, higher capital investment, and improved productivity, likely extending economic and profit cycles.

Against this backdrop, progress on trade remains central to growth projections, and with negotiations stalling in the second quarter, LPL Research slightly reduced its 2019 gross domestic product forecast to 2.25–2.5%, supported by consumer spending, business investment, and government spending.

Turning to the bond market, yields are expected to move higher from current levels. However, the LPL Research team also reduced its year-end forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.50–2.75% after considering benign inflation, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to pause rate hikes, and trade-related signs of slowing. Given signals from the yield curve as well as several weaker economic reports, the Fed may be more accommodative in coming quarters.

Based on expectations for economic growth and monetary policy, along with the fiscal tailwinds of government spending, reduced regulation, and lower taxes, 2019 may be a good year for equity investors. Accordingly, LPL Research believes there’s a potential for 5–6% earnings per share (EPS) growth in the S&P 500 Index during 2019 and that the S&P 500 would be fairly valued around 3,000. If clarity on trade and monetary policy result in an improved outlook for corporate profits, LPL Research may revisit that forecast.

Although the economic environment has become more challenging, the pillars of fundamental investing still appear to be sound. Together, we will continue to monitor the impact of trade developments, and refer to LPL Research Midyear Outlook for insightful commentary to support investment decisions.

Midyear Outlook 2019

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us.

#Investments
#MarketOutlook2019

Important Information

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.

Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted.

All data is provided as of May 31, 2019.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against a loss.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

LPL Tracking 1-865246

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Tariff Tough-Talk White Paper

This follows our most recent message on the impact of tariff tough-talk to market volatility. If you are interested in a little more detail on what is at stake and a potential range of outcomes, JP Morgan Asset Management has authored a white paper that might hit the spot.

White Paper: Tariff Talk by JP Morgan

While Cornerstone Wealth Management is not making wholesale recommendations on asset allocation adjustments or strategy tweaks currently, we continue to review what this could mean for clients with shorter-term liquidity needs or obligations.

If you have any questions about your circumstances, we are eager to hear from you.

Tracking# 1-862544
#Investments
#MarketOutlook
#Tariffs

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Trade Tensions and the Stock Market

Trade tensions have interrupted an unusually calm year in U.S. stocks. In May, the S&P 500 Index fell from an April 30 record high as the United States and China failed to reach a trade deal and escalated tariff tensions. The United States also proposed new tariffs on Mexico, further complicating the outlook for trade. The turnaround in trade talks has surprised investors and rattled global financial markets.

While a resurgence in trade tensions is unnerving, investors should pause and consider the fundamental implications of increasing tariff rates. Higher tariffs and other retaliatory measures could potentially weigh on economic activity and inflation, but the escalation is not expected to derail this expansion. In the worst-case trade scenario, gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be closer to 2% this year. While slower, that pace of growth is largely consistent with the average pace over the last decade.

It’s still possible that the United States and China can avoid further trade escalation, since it appears the bulk of the agreement is already in place. The United States and China are expected to reach some kind of a trade agreement—or at least a trade truce—in the next few months. And trade issues with Mexico likely will be resolved sometime this summer.

There has been a lot of fear-based decision-making in markets. Some nervousness is understandable, but current concerns on tariff impacts look overblown. Most likely there may be more bouts of volatility ahead as President Trump and China President Xi pursue a new path to compromise. In the end, look for a deal that should help support continued growth in the United States and global economies.

Some stock market weakness after such a strong start to the year was to be expected. While it’s felt like a turbulent month, the S&P 500’s decline has been relatively modest compared to previous experiences.

The U.S. economy continues to grow at a solid pace, and job creation is steady. Wages are rising at a healthy rate, and some benefits of tax reform and fiscal spending are still supporting demand. Earnings growth also has been better than feared, and S&P 500 companies have the potential to exceed low profit expectations the rest of this year. Ultimately, earnings growth and solid fundamentals could drive the S&P 500 to new highs later in 2019.

It’s important to remember that stocks’ rally is still intact, and pullbacks like the most recent one are normal events over the long term. While near-term volatility can be uncomfortable, it has helped curb excesses in the markets and sustain healthy sentiment, allowing for what is now the longest bull market on record. Volatility may also provide opportunities for suitable investors to rebalance, diversify portfolios toward targeted allocations, or add to equity positions.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.

#Investments #MarketOutlook

Important Information

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.

Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted.

All data is provided as of May 31, 2019.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against a loss.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Tracking #1-860638

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Four Consecutive Months of Growth

If it seems like the financial markets have been off to an unusually strong start to the year—you are correct. The S&P 500 Index has risen for four consecutive months, resulting in the strongest start to a year in more than 30 years! To be fair, the early gains included recovery from oversold market conditions in December, but a steady combination of monetary policy, economic performance, and corporate profitability have pushed the S&P 500 to record levels.

While we’re pleased with the new highs, it’s also important to keep an eye on what could temporarily disrupt solid market performance. Three key areas when making investment decisions are market fundamentals, technicals, and valuation. A review of each suggests the market can continue to provide longer-term opportunity, but with the possibility for shorter-term volatility. In any event, it’s important for suitable investors to diversify their portfolio strategies to best take advantage of market conditions.

Market fundamentals remain encouraging. U.S. economic data have been steadily improving in recent months, with signs of stabilization in manufacturing and gains in employment, personal spending, and business investment. In addition, the Federal Reserve appears set on keeping interest rates at current levels for the near future, allowing market interest rates and fiscal tailwinds to help support domestic activity. This has been a healthy offset to concerns of slowing global growth, with a potential U.S.-China trade deal remaining the wild card.

Market technicals, which include sentiment, pricing, and volume patterns, currently indicate solid momentum, while a variety of industry surveys suggests investors have a healthy balance between appreciation and skepticism of the recent market gains. Although the S&P 500 recently hit a new high, it took more than six months to exceed its previous record set last September. Historically, when the S&P 500 has had at least a six-month “pause” between records, returns over the following 12 months were above average, which may indicate good news for summer markets.

The third important criteria is market valuation. Rather than simply looking at the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) when making equity investment decisions, it’s also important to look at the P/E relative to the current level of interest rates and inflation, which both remain well below historical averages. As a result, although the market may be trading at record levels, it doesn’t appear to be overvalued.

It’s been quite a run for equity markets in the first four months of 2019. A quick review of market fundamentals, technicals, and valuation suggests a near-term pullback may be possible. However, suitable investors could use volatility as an opportunity to rebalance diversified portfolios or add to current positions to help work toward long-term investment goals.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.

Important Information

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.

The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90.

Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted.

All data is provided as of April 30, 2019.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Tracking #1-849032

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Do Your Investments Match Your Risk Tolerance?

When was the last time you looked at the content of your portfolio?

From time to time, it is a good idea to review how your portfolio assets are allocated – how they are divided among asset classes.

At the inception of your investment strategy, your target asset allocations reflect your tolerance for risk. Over time, though, your portfolio may need adjustments to maintain those target allocations.

Since the financial markets are dynamic, the different investments in your portfolio will gain or lose value as different asset classes have good or bad years. When stocks outperform more conservative asset classes, the portion of your portfolio invested in equities grows more than the other portions.

To put it another way, the passage of time and the performance of the markets may subtly and slowly imbalance your portfolio.

If too large a percentage of your portfolio is held in stocks or equity investments, you may shoulder more investment risk than you want. To address that risk, your portfolio holdings can be realigned to respect the original (target) asset allocations. 

A balanced portfolio is important. It would not be if one investment class always outperformed another – but in the ever-changing financial markets, there is no “always.” In certain market climates, investments with little or no correlation (a statistical measure of how two securities move in relation to each other) to the stock market become appealing. Some investors choose to maintain a significant cash position at all times, no matter how stocks fare.

Downside risk – the possibility of investments losing value – can particularly sting investors who are overly invested in momentum/expensive stocks. Historically, the average price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 has been around 14. A stock with a dramatically higher P/E ratio may be particularly susceptible to downside risk.1 *

Underdiversification risk can also prove to be an Achilles heel. As a hypothetical example of this, say a retiree or pre-retiree invests too heavily in seven or eight stocks. If shares of even one of these firms plummet, that investor’s portfolio may be greatly impacted.1

Are you retired or retiring soon? If so, this is all the more reason to review and possibly adjust the investment mix in your portfolio. Consistent income and the growth of your invested assets will likely be among your priorities, and therein lies the appeal of a balanced investment approach, with the twin goals of managing risk and encouraging an adequate return.

*The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower P/E ratio. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification and Asset Allocation do not protect against market risk. Stock investing includes risk, including loss of principal.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.

1 – thebalance.com/normal-pe-ratio-stocks-2388545 [2/27/19]

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April Showers, May Flower and The Economy

April brings showers, baseball, and historically, the best month of the year for the S&P 500 Index (for the last 20 years). On top of that, the S&P 500 had its best first quarter since 1998, and in March we celebrated the 10-year anniversary of the current bull market. Although the U.S. economy hit a soft patch to start 2019, the fundamentals supporting economic growth and corporate profits lead us to believe the bull market and this economic expansion could continue.

While stocks rallied in the first quarter following the sharp December decline, expectations for first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) appeared to dampen and stand at about half the pace that it did last year. Slower GDP growth was due mainly to lingering effects from the government shutdown, bad weather, U.S.-China trade tensions, and slower growth overseas—particularly in Europe. The good news is these temporary headwinds are expected to clear, setting up a potential pickup, albeit slower, in economic growth in the second quarter and beyond. In addition, the U.S. consumer spending outlook remains solid, buoyed by continued gains in employment and wages.

A U.S.-China trade deal, a persistent roadblock for business spending, could be finalized in the coming weeks or months, which should help business confidence and spur capital investment. At the same time, last year’s package of additional government spending of roughly $300 billion is still giving the economy a boost. Together, these bode well for an increase in business investment, which tends to lead to greater productivity and profit growth, keys to extending this economic expansion.

Signals of weaker growth from the bond markets have not gone unnoticed, yet these are seen more as evidence of an aging business cycle and something to expect as we enter the later stages of the cycle. Parts of the yield curve inverted briefly in March, which means long-term interest rates fell below short-term rates, and some consider this movement a harbinger of recession. While this garnered a lot of media attention, the inversion was very small and short-lived, and the attention may have been a little overblown. For its part, the Federal Reserve made a point to reiterate its pause on interest rate hikes to help support market sentiment during its March meeting.

Like April showers that bring May flowers, the outlook for the rest of 2019 continues to look positive. But that doesn’t mean a storm or two might not also come through in the form of increased market volatility. Stocks are still expected to be higher at year end than they are now, despite weathering potentially slower economic and earnings growth. U.S. growth should stabilize and slow slightly, and inflation may creep higher as the risks subside. Overall, there’s still plenty of evidence that solid U.S. fundamentals are firmly planted and a recession is unlikely on the near-term horizon.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.

Important Information

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.

Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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Real Estate Investments Course Starts June 3, 2019 at UC Berkeley Extension, San Francisco Campus

Please forward this to anyone you feel may be interested.

The next Real Estate Investments for Financial Planners and Investors course starts soon. This class will serve as an important foundation for making buy, sell, and hold real estate investment decisions. The coursework includes

  • An introduction to real estate investment basics
  • The Real Estate Cash Flow model
  • Real estate ownership and finance
  • Case studies on real estate investment decisions, and how they have impacted personal financial goals

Click here to register. Or contact me if you have any questions, or if you would like a copy of the course outline.

Sincerely,

Rich Arzaga, CFP®

Instructor

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Time to panic and sell bonds? Not so fast.

The article below include comments from thought-leader Bob Veres on the question we get occasionally on interest rates, the “inverted yield curve,” and the potential performance of bonds. Please reach out to us if you have any questions.

Rich Arzaga, CFP®

There’s almost zero chance that you missed the alarmist headlines on Friday about the inverted yield curve, which (you probably also read) inevitably signals an upcoming economic recession.  So the smart move is to retreat to the sidelines until the economic bust is over, and get back into the market once the yield curve has developed a healthy steepness.  Right?

Investors certainly thought so.  The S&P 500, on Friday, dropped 1.9%, as people reacted as if a recession would happen on Monday.

It would be nice if investing were that simple.  But in the current case, it is much further from simple than normal.

Why?

The yield curve is a line plotting out the interest rate (yield) that is paid to investors across maturities, from three month to 30 year.  An inversion happens whenever the shorter maturity bonds provide higher yields than longer-term ones—which is counterintuitive since the risks of holding bonds longer-term are greater than if you’re parking your money for a few months.  Longer-term, you could experience inflation, default or a rise in interest rates that will make you look stupid for committing your money at a particular rate for 10 years or longer.

This current so-called “yield curve inversion” really looks more like a flat line stretching from short-term to intermediate-term bonds.  What was widely reported was a (probably brief) moment when the 3-month Treasury note offered higher interest than the 10-year bond—by (get ready to be shocked) 0.022%.  You could see roughly the same spread difference around the beginning of 2006, which was not a very clear signal and did not result in a recession until a year and a half later.  Some months afterwards, the yield curve inverted with a vengeance, although it righted itself before worst carnage of 2008.

The lesson here is that, yes, we have experienced a yield curve inversion sometime before each of the last seven recessions.  However, there have also been two false positives—an inversion in late 1966 that was followed by economic growth, and a largely flat curve, like the one we are experiencing now, in late 1998 that also didn’t presage a recession.

Moreover, even if we accept the idea that a yield curve is a recession signal, the actual timing is almost impossible to predict.  Data from Bianco Research has shown that over the last 50 years, a recession followed, on average, 311 days later—roughly a year.  This is an average of some pretty broad fluctuations.  Following that brief inversion in 2006, the economy didn’t experience recession for another 487 days.  An inversion in December of 1978 was followed by a recession—389 days later.  In contrast, it took just 213 days for the U.S. economy to enter recession territory after a July, 2000 yield curve inversion.  Based on this evidence, selling the day after an inversion seems like a poor strategy.  Selling a month, or six months after doesn’t make sense either.

Finally, some economists think that the yield curve is not nearly the accurate signal that it once was.  The reasons are a bit technical, but they have to do with the increasing control that the central banks—including the U.S. Fed—have on the shorter end of the yield curve.  The Fed and other central banks have been buying up government bonds for their balance sheet, which means the shorter-term yields can no longer be seen as market driven.

So what IS an accurate signal of upcoming recession?  There are some tried-and-true signs, including an overheating rate of GDP growth (which we haven’t seen at all in this long, slow recovery), rising unemployment (nope) and spiking interest rates (no sign yet).  Another sign that directly impacts the yield curve is a sudden demand for longer-term bonds as a safe haven for nervous investors, causing the bond rates to drop below shorter-term paper.  There has been no indication of a shift in demand for bonds over stocks.

So what does all that mean?  The simple lesson is: don’t fall for clickbait.  We are still as much in the dark about what the economy and markets will do in the future as we were before 3-month Treasury bills returned a shocking 0.022% more than 10-year Treasury bonds.  We might experience a recession this year, or next, or in 2022.  All we know for sure is that we WILL experience one, possibly with a few unexpected market ups and downs in the meantime.

Sources:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-yield-curve-inverted-here-are-5-things-investors-need-to-know-2019-03-22

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4250705-inverted-yield-curve-another-viewpoint

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-could-fall-40-as-yield-curve-inverts-says-analyst-of-one-of-2018s-best-hedge-fund-returns-2019-03-22

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2019/03/23/the-yield-curve-just-inverted-putting-the-chance-of-a-recession-at-30/#2f7232bb13ab

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a-perfect-track-record-over-70-years-is-close-to-being-triggered.html

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The Markets and today’s weather

Date this February 8, 2019

Headline: The Markets and today’s weather

Most of the country might still be in the throes of the winter, but after extreme cold throughout many parts of the United States, thankfully the weather has warmed up. Stocks followed a similar path, warming up in January after a chilling December. Since the lows in December, the market is up more than 16% (as of Feb. 6, 2019). Some recent reports have been encouraging and point to a steadily expanding economy.

Meanwhile, market participants have become more comfortable with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) message. While these are positive developments, the likelihood for further volatility persists. Investors are encouraged to remain focused on the fundamentals that support a positive outlook for continued economic growth and stock market gains in 2019.

Recent economic data have pointed to a U.S. economy that remains on sound footing. The latest reports on U.S. manufacturing came in better than expected, reversing December’s disappointing data and signaling continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Also, more than 300,000 jobs were created in January, while inflation remains contained. These data points signal a growing U.S. economy.

The Fed and the market haven’t seen eye to eye on policy over the past year, but that may be changing. At its last policy meeting, the Fed announced it would be much more patient with future rate hikes, which could remove one of the big uncertainties for investors. The Fed reinforced its stance that the U.S economy remains solid, and cited factors such as slowing growth in China and Europe, trade risk, elevated uncertainty, and deteriorating investor sentiment as influencing its recent shift. Because of these crosswinds, the central bank has chosen a wait-and-see approach, and will likely hold off on policy moves until there is greater clarity on global economic conditions. The stock market responded positively to the Fed’s message that interest rates would be lower than had been initially anticipated, with its first gain on a Fed announcement day since Jerome Powell took over as Fed chair.

With stocks up strongly since late December, the next move higher may be tougher to achieve. However, in addition to the solid economic backdrop, there are several factors working in stocks’ favor that could send stocks higher from here. Stocks are less expensive than bonds. Earnings growth has been solid. A potential U.S.-China trade agreement still appears likely. And finally, a broad and diverse mix of stocks has been rising, a symptom of a healthy market advance. Key risks working against stocks include slowing growth overseas and budding earnings headwinds—although a slowdown in earnings growth is very different from a contraction.

In closing, although we should remain prepared to weather any further market volatility, these signs are encouraging—much like early signs of spring peeking through the snow. I encourage you to stay focused on the fundamentals supporting the economy and corporate profits.

#Investments

#MarketOutlook

Important Information

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Tracking #1-819896

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Real Estate Investments Course Starts January 15, 2019 at UC Berkeley Extension, San Francisco Campus

The next Real Estate Investments for Financial Planners and Investors course starts soon. This class will serve as an important foundation for making buy, sell, and hold real estate investment decisions. The coursework includes

  • An introduction to real estate investment basics
  • The Real Estate Cash Flow model
  • Real estate ownership and finance
  • Case studies on real estate investment decisions, and how they have impacted personal financial goals

Click here to register. Or contact me if you have any questions, or if you would like a copy of the course outline.

Sincerely, Rich Arzaga, CFP®, CCIM

Course Instructor

#Investments
#Real Estate
#BayEastAssociation