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The Markets and today’s weather

Date this February 8, 2019

Headline: The Markets and today’s weather

Most of the country might still be in the throes of the winter, but after extreme cold throughout many parts of the United States, thankfully the weather has warmed up. Stocks followed a similar path, warming up in January after a chilling December. Since the lows in December, the market is up more than 16% (as of Feb. 6, 2019). Some recent reports have been encouraging and point to a steadily expanding economy.

Meanwhile, market participants have become more comfortable with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) message. While these are positive developments, the likelihood for further volatility persists. Investors are encouraged to remain focused on the fundamentals that support a positive outlook for continued economic growth and stock market gains in 2019.

Recent economic data have pointed to a U.S. economy that remains on sound footing. The latest reports on U.S. manufacturing came in better than expected, reversing December’s disappointing data and signaling continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Also, more than 300,000 jobs were created in January, while inflation remains contained. These data points signal a growing U.S. economy.

The Fed and the market haven’t seen eye to eye on policy over the past year, but that may be changing. At its last policy meeting, the Fed announced it would be much more patient with future rate hikes, which could remove one of the big uncertainties for investors. The Fed reinforced its stance that the U.S economy remains solid, and cited factors such as slowing growth in China and Europe, trade risk, elevated uncertainty, and deteriorating investor sentiment as influencing its recent shift. Because of these crosswinds, the central bank has chosen a wait-and-see approach, and will likely hold off on policy moves until there is greater clarity on global economic conditions. The stock market responded positively to the Fed’s message that interest rates would be lower than had been initially anticipated, with its first gain on a Fed announcement day since Jerome Powell took over as Fed chair.

With stocks up strongly since late December, the next move higher may be tougher to achieve. However, in addition to the solid economic backdrop, there are several factors working in stocks’ favor that could send stocks higher from here. Stocks are less expensive than bonds. Earnings growth has been solid. A potential U.S.-China trade agreement still appears likely. And finally, a broad and diverse mix of stocks has been rising, a symptom of a healthy market advance. Key risks working against stocks include slowing growth overseas and budding earnings headwinds—although a slowdown in earnings growth is very different from a contraction.

In closing, although we should remain prepared to weather any further market volatility, these signs are encouraging—much like early signs of spring peeking through the snow. I encourage you to stay focused on the fundamentals supporting the economy and corporate profits.

#Investments

#MarketOutlook

Important Information

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Tracking #1-819896

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LPL Research Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets is filled with investment insights and market guidance for the year ahead.

LPL Research believes the following three themes will be key to the markets:

  • Sustaining growth via fiscal policy. We expect the ongoing impact of fiscal stimulus will be readily apparent in 2019 and that policy will continue to play an important role for the economy and financial markets—potentially extending the duration of the current business cycle.
  • Creating opportunity amid rising volatility. We believe any bouts of market volatility should be embraced—not feared—by suitable investors as an opportunity to rebalance portfolios toward targeted allocations.
  • Fundamentals in focus. Despite the market weakness we saw at the end of 2018, at LPL Research we expect the U.S. economy to grow in 2019 and support gains for stocks. Risks such as trade uncertainty, slowing global growth, and geopolitics do require careful monitoring, however, for their potential impact on the markets and economy.

“We do not anticipate a recession in 2019, thanks to the fundamentally driven economic momentum, combined with fiscal incentives and government spending programs on tap for the coming year,” said Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We encourage investors, where appropriate, to base any investment decisions on the fundamentals rather than acting on speculative headlines, especially as the cycle matures and the 2020 presidential election now comes into increased focus.”

Armed with the investment insights of LPL Research’s Outlook 2019, and supported by the guidance of a trusted financial advisor, we expect investors can remain prepared for investment opportunities ahead. Read more about our forecasts and key themes in the full Report.

Click here to download the full report

#Investments
#MarketOutlook

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against a loss. This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

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Latest Market Action

Another year is drawing to a close, but so far neither market volatility nor market-moving headlines have shown any signs of winding down. As we reflect on a challenging 2018 and look for bright spots in 2019, confidence in continued steady growth in the US. economy remains. The list of the market’s concerns is long, but fundamentals for stocks appear favorable. Here is a brief check-in on the latest developments across these areas of concern and thoughts on the increase in market volatility.

At the end of November, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell restored investors’ confidence in the Fed’s commitment to flexibility, addressing worries that the Fed might act too aggressively. He stated that current interest rates are “just below neutral,” suggesting a more gradual pace of rate hikes than in his October statement that rates were “a long way from neutral.” The stock market rallied in response. Although the market dipped again on global growth concerns, this reassurance from the Fed is a good indication that the central bank will remain pragmatic when it comes to evaluating risks for the economy and stock market. Markets should be able to handle a hike in December and one or two in 2019, consistent with current expectations.

The impact of tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty on global growth prospects continues to contribute to market volatility, including the recent sell-offs. Progress was made at the G20 summit over the December 1–2 weekend, and markets welcomed the 90-day trade truce while negotiations proceed, although stocks gave back the gains immediately following the announcement when conflicting reports came out around what was agreed to at the summit. Despite this, the fact that the two sides are talking and making some progress is encouraging.

It’s important to recognize the difficulty that market volatility can have on investor confidence. As hard as it may be to believe, this year has been very typical in terms of the volatility that markets have experienced historically. Though indicators pointed to higher volatility this year, these periods can be challenging. When we’re prepared for it, and have a plan, we’re in a better position to make good decisions despite increased uncertainty. Maintaining a long-term plan and avoiding the urge to react strongly to short-term market swings are very important, as is focusing on the many fundamentals supporting growth in the economy and corporate profits, rather than allowing speculative headlines to alter one’s long-term investment plans.

To prepare for the year ahead, please stay tuned for the LPL Research Outlook 2019 publication, due out in mid-December. This publication provides valuable insights and guidance to arm investors for what may occur in the future, including the big themes to watch, LPL Research’s investment recommendations, and expectations for economic and market performance.

#MarketOutlook
#Investments
#Market Volitility
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Why the U.S. Might Be Less Affected by a Trade War

The nature of our economy could help it withstand the disruption.

A trade war does seem to be getting underway. Investors around the world see headwinds arising from newly enacted and planned tariffs, headwinds that could potentially exert a drag on global growth (and stock markets). How badly could these trade disputes hurt the American economy? Perhaps not as dramatically as some journalists and analysts warn.1,2

Our business sector may be impacted most. Undeniably, tariffs on imported goods raise costs for manufacturers. Costlier imports may reduce business confidence, and less confidence implies less capital investment. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which regularly surveys firms to learn their plans for the next six months, learned in July that businesses anticipate investing less and hiring fewer employees during the second half of the year. The survey’s index for future activity fell in July for the fourth month in a row. (Perhaps the outlook is not quite as negative as the Philadelphia Fed reports: a recent National Federation of Independent Business survey indicates that most companies have relatively stable spending plans for the near term.)1,2

Fortunately, the U.S. economy is domestically driven. Consumer spending is its anchor: household purchases make up about two-thirds of it. Our economy is fairly “closed” compared to the economies of some of our key trading partners and rivals. Last year, trade accounted for just 27% of our gross domestic product. In contrast, it represented 37% of gross domestic product for China, 64% of growth for Canada, 78% of GDP for Mexico, and 87% of GDP for Germany.3,4

Our stock markets have held up well so far. The trade spat between the U.S. and China cast some gloom over Wall Street during the second-quarter earnings season, yet the S&P 500 neared an all-time peak in early August.5

All this tariff talk has helped the dollar. Between February 7 and August 7, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 5.4%. A stronger greenback does potentially hurt U.S. exports and corporate earnings, and in the past, the impact has been felt notably in the energy, materials, and tech sectors.6,7

As always, the future comes with question marks. No one can predict just how severe the impact from tariffs on our economy and other economies will be or how the narrative will play out. That said, it appears the U.S. may have a bit more economic insulation in the face of a trade war than other nations might have.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.Citations.

1 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/us-weekly-jobless-claims-hit-more-than-48-and-a-half-year-low-idUSKBN1K91R5 [7/19/18]
2 – nytimes.com/2018/07/24/upshot/trade-war-damage-to-us-economy-how-to-tell.html [7/24/18]
3 – money.cnn.com/2018/07/25/news/economy/state-of-the-economy-gdp/index.html [7/25/18]
4 – alliancebernstein.com/library/can-the-us-economy-weather-the-trade-wars.htm [7/17/18]
5 – cnbc.com/2018/08/06/the-sp-500-and-other-indexes-are-again-on-the-verge-of-historic-highs.html [8/6/18]
6 – barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY/performance [8/7/18]
7 – investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/strongweakdollar.asp [3/16/18]

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The Turkish Currency Crisis

A look at why it matters so much to the world, and the risk of a domino effect.

The collapse of the Turkish lira has become a major financial story. You may wonder why the financial media is devoting so much space to this, as Turkey is not exactly China or Japan or Germany. The fear is that Turkey’s problem hints at a greater crisis.1,2

Globally speaking, Turkey is not all that minor. Its economy is the world’s seventeenth largest, and while it is seen as an emerging market, it is also in the trade orbit of the European Union. Turkey does not yet belong to the E.U., but it trades heavily with E.U. countries: it ranks fifth among importers to the E.U. and represents the fourth-largest E.U. export market.1,2

Stubbornness. Nepotism. Incompetence. These are the words associated with Turkish monetary policy of late. After his reelection, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called interest rates the “mother and father of all evil” and made his brother-in-law the nation’s finance minister. Stunningly, the nation’s central bank then announced it would not raise interest rates, bucking a global trend. (A rate hike finally happened in July.) The Turkish lira has lost 40% of its value versus the dollar this year, and it fell 18.5% in a day following President Trump’s August 10 vow to double U.S. tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum imports.3,4

Turkey’s current monetary policy is ill-timed. The dollar is getting stronger and stronger versus other currencies, mainly because the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and unwinding its $4.5 trillion portfolio of government securities in response to a healthier economy. The majority of Turkey’s debt is dollar-denominated – and like many developing nations, it uses local currency to pay off dollar-backed debts.3,4

What if Turkey’s currency implosion is just the tip of the iceberg? This is the major question bothering economists and institutional investors. Argentina owns a great deal of debt priced in dollars. Did you know that the International Monetary Fund gave Argentina a $50 billion bailout in June? Did you know that the benchmark interest rate in Argentina is currently 45%? Its peso dropped to a record low in early August. South Africa, Russia, and Mexico have also seen their currencies slip recently.3

In the worst-case scenario, something like the 1997-98 global currency crisis occurs. In July 1997, Thailand had to devalue its currency, the baht, to a record low. Over the next year-and-a-half, Malaysia, the Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and South Korea all faced financial emergencies; the Dow had its two worst trading sessions in history, with drops of 554 and 512 points; leading Japanese banks and brokerages collapsed; the IMF had to loan $23 billion to Russia, $57 billion to South Korea, and $40 billion to Indonesia; Russia’s stock market cratered; Japan went into a recession for the first time since 1975; and according to the IMF, world economic growth was reduced by about 50%.5

You can see why investors, economists, and journalists might be concerned about the currency crisis in Turkey. It is worth pointing out that the U.S. came through that 1997-98 global crisis relatively unscathed, though, as always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.5

Hopefully, what is happening in Turkey will not prove to be the first act of a drama for the global economy. If it is, fast action may be required by the IMF, the World Bank, and central banks to restore confidence in the markets.

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.

1 – nasdaq.com/article/market-slides-on-turkeys-troubles1-cm1007145 [8/14/18]
2 – ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/turkey/ [4/16/18]
3 – money.cnn.com/2018/08/14/investing/turkey-lira-emerging-market-crisis/index.html [8/14/18]
4 – marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-the-selloff-in-turkeys-lira-matters-to-global-markets-2018-08-10 [8/10/18]
5 – pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/crash/etc/cron.html [11/17/15]

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Mid-Year Outlook

The recently released LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens is filled with investment insights and market guidance to take us through the rest of the year. So far this year, the return of the business cycle has brought the fiscal policy changes that were expected to propel economic activity and the financial markets higher in 2018.

Policy remains a key theme to watch. Tax cuts, a more business-friendly regulatory environment, and increased government spending should support consumer spending, business investment, and corporate profits—key drivers of LPL Research’s economic and stock forecasts. The biggest risk to investor confidence this year has been around trade, including new tariffs. When comparing the fiscal measures with the potential impact of increased tariffs, however, the benefits appear to outweigh the costs. With these factors in mind, policy changes should have a positive influence on the economy and markets.

Another theme that may garner more attention this year is that certain economic and market indicators may have peaked, and that we may have seen the best out of this expansion. However, the context is critically important here. Reaching these points with a strong economic backdrop is expected and indicates the potential for continued growth; in addition, historically, we’ve seen an average of four more years of stock gains after triggering these market signals. So, although we are in the later stages of the economic cycle, it does not appear that a recession is looming.

Against this backdrop, LPL Research maintains the forecasts that were set forth at the beginning of 2018, following the passage of the new tax law. Expectations are for 3% gross domestic product growth for the U.S. economy, with tax cuts, government spending, and deregulation measures providing support. As expected, accelerating economic growth and rising interest rates continue to pressure bonds; thus, flat to low-single-digit returns are projected for bonds (as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index). However, it’s prudent to note that high-quality bonds may provide diversification benefits for investors’ portfolios.

Strong earnings are expected to remain the key driver of stock gains, thanks to the benefits of the new tax law. Given that we are in the later stages of this economic cycle, with factors such as increased trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty at play, greater market volatility may be ahead. But it’s important to remember that experiencing these ups and downs is a normal aspect of our market environment. Also, within the context of steady economic growth and strong corporate profits, there is the potential for stock gains of 10% or more (as measured by the S&P 500 Index).

Overall, economic and market growth is expected to continue in 2018 and beyond, and the LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2018 is here to provide insightful commentary to help you navigate the year ahead. If you have any questions, I encourage you to contact me.

Cornerstone MYO 2018 Executive Summary

Important Information

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a nondiversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS, and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

Additional descriptions and disclosures are available in the Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens publication.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

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Midyear Outlook 2018

The recently released LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens is filled with investment insights and market guidance to take us through the rest of the year. So far this year, the return of the business cycle has brought the fiscal policy changes that were expected to propel economic activity and the financial markets higher in 2018.

Policy remains a key theme to watch. Tax cuts, a more business-friendly regulatory environment, and increased government spending should support consumer spending, business investment, and corporate profits—key drivers of LPL Research’s economic and stock forecasts. The biggest risk to investor confidence this year has been around trade, including new tariffs. When comparing the fiscal measures with the potential impact of increased tariffs, however, the benefits appear to outweigh the costs. With these factors in mind, policy changes should have a positive influence on the economy and markets.

Another theme that may garner more attention this year is that certain economic and market indicators may have peaked, and that we may have seen the best out of this expansion. However, the context is critically important here. Reaching these points with a strong economic backdrop is expected and indicates the potential for continued growth; in addition, historically, we’ve seen an average of four more years of stock gains after triggering these market signals. So, although we are in the later stages of the economic cycle, it does not appear that a recession is looming.

Against this backdrop, LPL Research maintains the forecasts that were set forth at the beginning of 2018, following the passage of the new tax law. Expectations are for 3% gross domestic product growth for the U.S. economy, with tax cuts, government spending, and deregulation measures providing support. As expected, accelerating economic growth and rising interest rates continue to pressure bonds; thus, flat to low-single-digit returns are projected for bonds (as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index). However, it’s prudent to note that high-quality bonds may provide diversification benefits for investors’ portfolios.

Strong earnings are expected to remain the key driver of stock gains, thanks to the benefits of the new tax law. Given that we are in the later stages of this economic cycle, with factors such as increased trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty at play, greater market volatility may be ahead. But it’s important to remember that experiencing these ups and downs is a normal aspect of our market environment. Also, within the context of steady economic growth and strong corporate profits, there is the potential for stock gains of 10% or more (as measured by the S&P 500 Index).

Overall, economic and market growth is expected to continue in 2018 and beyond, and the LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2018 is here to provide insightful commentary to help you navigate the year ahead. If you have any questions, I encourage you to contact me.

Important Information

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a nondiversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS, and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

Additional descriptions and disclosures are available in the Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens publication.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

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Keeping an Eye on Global Activity

The summer months are almost underway, which means that both vacations and midyear check-ins are ahead. As we approach the midpoint of 2018, many of us will take this opportunity to reflect on what we’ve seen so far and what may be ahead for the rest of the year. But we’re not quite there yet! So as we kick off the month of June, here are some valuable takeaways coming out of recent action in Italy and a quick check-in on the U.S. economy.

The impact of Italy’s shift in government has been a hot topic during the past couple of weeks. Three months after Italy’s election, political uncertainty led to heightened concern that Italy’s populist coalition may try to pull out of the European Union and Eurozone (countries that use the euro as their currency). The potential for Italy to operate outside of the Eurozone prompted investors to reassess the risk of Italy’s government debt, leading to large sell-off in Italian government bonds and triggering stocks to fall globally.

In hindsight, markets may have overreacted to Italian political risk. These moves partially reversed after markets digested the news and backed off the worst-case-scenario mindset. Italy isn’t expected to leave the Eurozone, although political unrest may continue, which could weigh on Europe’s outlook. One positive takeaway from the market’s initial reaction, however, is the role that high-quality bonds played. Investors reacted to the sell-off by flocking to U.S. Treasuries, reaffirming that high-quality bonds can be an important element of a well-balanced portfolio, particularly amid stock market volatility.

In U.S. economic news, the big headline was the May jobs report, which was generally positive. The report indicated that job growth may be accelerating, wage growth is increasing, and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. Wage growth is not at a level that would alarm the Federal Reserve (Fed), but likely keeps the Fed on track to increase interest rates at its next meeting this month (June 12–13), which is widely anticipated by the markets. This healthy labor market may continue to provide support for the economy and consumer spending.

Overall, the global economic backdrop, particularly in the U.S., appears to remain intact. Although the situation in Italy is an ongoing risk worth monitoring, LPL Research does not believe it indicates a change in the trajectory of the global economy.

Rest assured that as the days become longer and summer unfolds, I will continue to keep a close eye on developments in Italy and around the globe, watching for any potential investment impacts.

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Sell in May? Not so fast….

May’s arrival has brought warmer weather to many parts of the U.S. (finally), but it also brings talk of one of the most widely cited stock market clichés in history. “Sell in May and go away” is a longstanding investment adage because historically, the six-month period from May through October has been the weakest stretch of the year. However, before you spring into action, it’s important to step back and look at the big picture of what’s really driving our current market environment. The fundamentals of impressive earnings, modest valuations, and a strong economic backdrop may be better indicators to watch.

Looking at these underlying factors of today’s economic and market environment suggests opportunity for further growth, despite this historically weaker season. Here are a few highlights to note:

  • Impressive earnings season. With most companies having reported first quarter results, earnings for the quarter are tracking to a double-digit increase (more than 20%) compared to the first quarter of last year. Guidance for future earnings has also been positive.
  • Solid economic growth. The initial estimate for gross domestic product for the first quarter was a slowdown from the prior three quarters, but it still exceeded expectations. The slowdown seems to be a result of temporary factors, and leading indicators suggest continued growth for the U.S. economy.
  • Reasonable stock valuations. Although stock valuations are slightly above average right now, when considering the positive earnings outlook, low inflation, and low interest rates, stocks don’t appear to be as expensive as some would suggest.

Combined, these factors paint a favorable picture overall for the potential of further market gains. At the same time, it’s prudent not to dismiss the possibility for some seasonal weakness or other risk factors that could impact the markets. The possibility for a modest pullback during this upcoming period remains; for suitable investors, this could present an opportunity to rebalance portfolios and potentially add to equity positions. All in all, for many investors, the main takeaway is to stay focused on the long term, as reacting to seasonal weakness by selling stocks could prove detrimental to the long-term performance of portfolios.

While keeping an eye on historical trends and seasonal patterns is important, as they can provide valuable context to the market environment—they shouldn’t dictate your investment strategy. So don’t let the “sell in May” adage bring you down. Enjoy the warmer weather and extra hours of sunlight, and stick to your long-term investment plan.

As always, if you have any questions, I encourage you to contact me.

Important Information

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against a loss. This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax or legal advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific situation with a qualified tax or legal advisor.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.